Disclaimer: This is not a serious post. It is just an attempt to explain some pattern of thought that occurs a lot. I could not express it well so I may write again about it to be able to get to the real point.
Intuitively, in a probabilistic view, everything we see, should have had a big probability:
1) Anything happening must have had Pr>0.3
I like to call this "the big law"! The only problem I found with this law is:
But then why 'I' exist??? My prior probability is too small: something like Pr << 10^(-1000000).
(I am still not sure if it should be considered as observer's expectation (one who observes and analyzes) or a consequence of a system which tries to understand the world based on some assumption of causality.)
PS. 0.3 is almost arbitrary.
PS. Anything with Pr>0.7 will happen (Not sure about this)
PS. May be related to this: Anything with enough big risk (impact) with Pr>ε will happen (Murphy's law). "e$d
Intuitively, in a probabilistic view, everything we see, should have had a big probability:
I like to call this "the big law"! The only problem I found with this law is:
(I am still not sure if it should be considered as observer's expectation (one who observes and analyzes) or a consequence of a system which tries to understand the world based on some assumption of causality.)
PS. 0.3 is almost arbitrary.
PS. Anything with Pr>0.7 will happen (Not sure about this)
PS. May be related to this: Anything with enough big risk (impact) with Pr>ε will happen (Murphy's law). "e$d
۴ نظر:
and how did you end up with these rules? I just don't get it ... If anything that had happened must have had a probability bigger than 0.3 then what the heck is the probability study good for? has this number come from empirical studies or is it just a guess? If it's only a guess why do you take it so serious?
Probably I could not express it well. Actually the probability of everything that have happened is equal to 1.0 because it has happened. But I insist there is some empirical rule about the fact that many surprising things are not actually surprising.
Dear Ali, I tried to answer those issues. Let me know if it reconciles our opinions.
Yes , cool. I like this part:
"I insist there is some empirical rule about the fact that many surprising things are not actually surprising"
ارسال یک نظر